According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, as of 4 p.m. on July 16, the depression was centered over the eastern waters of the Philippines. Wind speeds near the center reached level 6-7 (39-61 km/h), with gusts up to level 9. The system is moving west-northwest at approximately 15 km/h.

Over the next 24 hours, it is expected to maintain its west-northwest trajectory at 15-20 km/h. By 4 p.m. on July 17, the center will be located over the eastern waters of northern Philippines and is forecast to intensify into a tropical storm with wind speeds reaching level 8 and gusts at level 10.

In the subsequent 24 hours, the storm is projected to continue heading northwest at about 20 km/h. By 4 p.m. on July 18, its center is expected to be over the eastern coast of Luzon Island (Philippines), with wind intensity rising to level 10 and gusts up to level 12, with further strengthening likely.

From 48 to 72 hours ahead, the storm is forecast to maintain a west-northwest track, moving at 20-25 km/h, and is expected to intensify further as it nears the East Sea.

Meteorologists note that the storm system, once it strengthens over northern Luzon, may cross into the East Sea over the weekend (July 19-20). However, its future track and intensity remain uncertain due to unstable atmospheric conditions such as the southwest monsoon and subtropical high-pressure systems.

If it moves west-northwest toward the Gulf of Tonkin, there is a 50-60% chance it could head toward northern Vietnam. Should this happen, a widespread rain event is likely in the northern region and provinces from Thanh Hoa to Nghe An between July 20-25.

Rainfall patterns and impact remain complex and depend on the storm’s eventual path and strength.

The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting is closely monitoring developments and will issue timely updates to assist authorities in preparation and response efforts.

Bao Anh