When I witnessed students from Can Tho University, forest rangers, and volunteers planting young mangrove trees to block waves and prevent saltwater intrusion along a sea dyke in Soc Trang last weekend, my awareness of climate change was awakened.

They struggled through the mud, sometimes waist-deep, to plant young mangroves – a species that helps break the force of the sea and regulate the climate – just like other coastal plants such as mangrove apple and nipa palm that many coastal provinces are planting to combat climate change.

Inside the sea dyke, there are scattered, modest tin-roofed houses – the simplest imaginable – of local residents who, like generations before them, depend on the sea for their livelihood.

Far offshore, dozens of giant wind turbines stand tall, some spinning to generate electricity, others still and silent. The cost of a single wind turbine is staggering – from $2 million to $4 million.

More than any words, this scene illustrates Vietnam’s efforts to fight climate change and honor its net zero commitment – all amid poverty.

People planting young mangroves help break sea waves and regulate the climate along the Soc Trang sea dyke. Photo: Tu Giang

A poor nation bears the greatest consequences

Vietnam is among the world’s 10 most vulnerable countries to climate change impacts. In the Mekong Delta alone, the entire region is heavily affected by many compounding factors, such as rising sea levels, the low-lying nature of the lower Mekong, and dependence on upstream water sources.

International environmental organizations have calculated that if sea levels rise by one meter under high-emission scenarios, between 15,000 and 20,000 square kilometers of natural land – equivalent to 40% of the total area of the Mekong Delta – would be submerged.

Vietnam committed to net zero emissions by 2050 at the COP26 climate summit in 2021. Since then, from that conference to COP29 last year, wealthy nations have increased their climate finance pledges from $100 billion to $300 billion annually to help poorer countries cope with climate change.

Vietnam is among the beneficiaries. Under the JEPT (Just Energy Transition Partnership) program, we are pledged $15.5 billion in loans over the next 3 to 5 years to address urgent needs and catalyze the energy transition.

However, this loan – as researched – carries interest rates no different from typical ODA loans for developing countries and is insignificant compared to the massive capital Vietnam needs for energy development.

In the revised Power Development Plan VIII, approved by the government in mid-April, Vietnam requires up to $266.3 billion to develop power generation and transmission grids over the next 10 years.

In other words, we need nearly $27 billion per year just for the power sector – to meet green transition, clean energy, and emission reduction commitments. This amount is many times higher than the $15.5 billion pledged under the JEPT framework.

However, Vietnam’s per capita primary energy consumption (*) remains very low – just 58% of the global average; 26% of the OECD; 32% of the EU; 60% of Thailand; 18% of South Korea; 7% of Singapore; 34% of Malaysia; and 40% of China.

We also account for only 0.8% of global CO₂ emissions.

In other words, Vietnam is a developing economy with very low energy consumption and CO₂ emissions but is one of the nations suffering the most from climate change.

Who truly owes whom?

I once asked representatives from lending countries in press conferences in Hanoi: “Is this fair?” and “Who truly owes whom?” I have never received a satisfactory answer. Naturally, no one would be so naïve as to directly address such a divisive issue.

Fortunately, this question was answered during a panel discussion organized last weekend by ActionAid, Kinh Te & Do Thi Newspaper, Can Tho University, and the Vietnam Fund for Social Protection Programs (AFV). Associate Professor Dr. Van Pham Dang Tri, Director of the Climate Change Institute at Can Tho University, stated:

“Many developed countries that industrialized first naturally emitted more CO₂ than we did. Vietnam, as a developing country, emits far less. If you analyze it this way, it is clear that developed nations owe us more, as they caused greater pollution. Therefore, their investments in us are simply a way of repaying that debt.”

Professor Tri’s reasoning is echoed in a new ActionAid report titled “Who owes whom.” According to the report, by 2025, the world will have 54 countries in a debt crisis, forced to cut spending on health, education, and climate change adaptation to repay foreign debts.

Low- and lower-middle-income countries now bear $1.45 trillion in foreign debt, with $138 billion repaid in 2023 alone – exceeding the healthcare budgets of over 75% of these countries.

Meanwhile, wealthy nations – those responsible for excess emissions and using more than their fair share of atmospheric space – have yet to pay their “climate debt.” The total climate debt of major emitters is estimated at $107 trillion – 70 times greater than the foreign debt burdening poor nations.

If this climate debt were repaid by 2050, wealthy nations would need to transfer over $4 trillion annually – nearly 30 times the current debt repayment level.

The global power imbalance allows poor nations to be forced into debt repayment, while the climate debts of wealthy countries remain unenforced. Though the Paris Agreement in 2015 pledged $100 billion a year for climate finance, most of that is loans, not grants. By 2024 at COP29, the pledged amount increased to $300 billion per year, but again, there’s no clarity on whether this will be grants or loans.

While wealthy nations drag their feet, the debt system is accelerating the climate crisis. To obtain US dollars to service debt, poor countries are compelled to increase resource extraction, boost chemical production, expand export agriculture, deforest, and damage the environment. Worse still, their loan interest rates are higher, as they are considered “credit risks.”

Ultimately, the questions “Who truly owes whom? Who benefits from the current system? Who maintains it?” have clear answers.

But the journey from those answers to actual action by developed countries, in relation to developing nations like Vietnam, is a long one – and unlikely to end soon.

Yet, watching students, forest rangers, locals, and volunteers in Soc Trang slogging through the mud to plant mangroves and nipa palms last weekend – that is our way forward.

We must adapt and take initiative to combat climate change – not just sit and wait for someone to help!

(*) Primary energy: The total energy obtained from raw fuels such as coal, oil, natural gas, solar energy, and hydropower before being converted.

Tu Giang