Echoing the trade disruptions that once hit Canada and Mexico, Vietnam now stands at a critical juncture: it can either continue reacting passively to external shocks or make bold moves toward resilience and transformation for sustainable development.

Trade surpluses have become a focal point for U.S. policymakers concerned with reciprocity and fair trade.

These tariffs reflect structural asymmetries: limited access for U.S. companies to Vietnam’s market, constrained domestic consumption capacity, and a heavy reliance on labor-intensive, low-cost manufacturing for exports. These factors make Vietnam vulnerable - not only to tariffs but also to shifts in global trade dynamics.

Vietnam’s export model: competitive yet vulnerable

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Vietnam’s export economy thrives on low labor costs and deep integration into global supply chains. Illustration

Vietnam’s export success has largely been built on low labor costs and integration into global supply chains. However, most of the country’s added value occurs at the final assembly stage, leaving it exposed when trade tensions rise.

Sectors such as electronics, textiles, furniture, and seafood - major contributors to export revenue - are highly price-sensitive and now face declining competitiveness due to tariffs.

Exacerbating the situation is the relatively small volume of U.S. goods and services imported into Vietnam. U.S. companies continue to face regulatory and operational barriers in key areas such as agriculture, healthcare, education, and digital services. This results in a trade relationship perceived as one-sided.

Canada turned U.S. tariffs into an economic opportunity

In 2018, the U.S. imposed tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum from Canada and Mexico under Section 232, citing national security concerns. The immediate disruption affected billions of dollars in trade and pressured critical industries.

However, both countries responded strategically - using diplomacy, industrial policy, and institutional reforms to turn crisis into opportunity. As Vietnam faces a proposed 46% tariff on its exports, these cases offer deep lessons - particularly Canada’s efforts to boost trade resilience through diversification and diplomacy.

Initial impact: With CAD 16 billion in steel and aluminum exports affected, Canada faced production risks and supply chain disruptions.

Strategic actions: Imposed reciprocal tariffs worth CAD 16.6 billion, targeting sensitive U.S. sectors.

Promoted export diversification by rapidly deploying CETA and CPTPP agreements, resulting in a 20% increase in exports to Europe between 2018 and 2020.

Deployed CAD 2 billion in domestic support packages to empower local manufacturers and protect jobs.

Engaged in WTO dispute resolution and lobbied the U.S. business community.

Lessons for Vietnam

Utilize Hoshin Kanri to align national export strategies with innovation and regional growth priorities.

Apply Value Stream Mapping to optimize production lines for new international markets.

Develop Standard Work procedures in logistics and compliance under CPTPP and EVFTA frameworks.

Mexico advanced supply chain and legal modernization

Initial impact: As a leading auto parts exporter, Mexico faced massive supply chain risks worth USD 90 billion in U.S. trade.

Strategic actions: Imposed targeted trade measures on U.S. agriculture to create leverage in negotiations.

Proactively helped shape the USMCA agreement, ensuring long-term access and stability for critical industries.

Passed reforms in labor rights, intellectual property protection, and environmental standards to enhance competitiveness.

Expanded domestic transport infrastructure and production networks.

Lessons for Vietnam

Introduce Total Cost of Ownership models to prioritize long-term value over short-term savings in sourcing and operations.

Launch Lean Supplier Development initiatives to upgrade the capabilities of local SMEs in supply chains.

Implement Visual Management Systems and traceability tools to meet ESG and regulatory expectations in the U.S. and EU.

A moment to prove Vietnam’s strategic strength

Vietnam’s significant trade surplus with the U.S. in 2024 has drawn American scrutiny - but also presents an opportunity to transition from an export-led model to one that emphasizes value creation and innovation.

Strategic priorities

Leverage reforms for deeper integration: Like Mexico, Vietnam can use this moment to adopt transparent regulations, IP protections, and ESG commitments - paving the way for deeper partnerships with U.S. investors and global tech leaders.

Purposeful market diversification: Inspired by Canada’s pivot to new markets, Vietnam can fully activate CPTPP and EVFTA to boost exports to high-value destinations like Germany, Canada, and Australia.

Promote domestic value creation: Beyond assembly, Vietnam can elevate its global brand by investing in R&D, product design, and customization - especially in textiles, seafood, and electronics.

Implement full-scale Operational Excellence (OPEX): Adopting frameworks such as Lean, Six Sigma, Kaizen, PDCA, and AI to create high-efficiency workplaces, drive innovation, manage value chains, and enhance customer experience can empower Vietnamese companies to boost productivity, reduce waste, and respond better to global buyers.

Strengthen institutional collaboration: Closer coordination between government ministries, trade bodies, and private-sector leaders can accelerate reform, streamline investor onboarding, and secure sustainable trade growth.

From the stories of Canada and Mexico, it is clear that tariff shocks do not have to derail growth - they can be catalysts for transformation.

With visionary leadership, strategic partnerships, and disciplined application of OPEX principles, Vietnam has the tools not only to adapt - but to lead - in the next era of global commerce. Vietnam can elevate its role as a reliable, high-value partner in international trade.

Dr. Ngo Cong Truong

(Operational Excellence Master Black Belt, Top 40 ASQ expert, currently living and working in the United States)