Vietnam’s average fertility rate currently stands at 1.91 children per woman of reproductive age, with a persistent downward trend. A growing number of young people are delaying marriage and having fewer children, leading to an average of fewer than two children per woman nationwide.

The number of provinces and cities falling below the replacement fertility level is rising annually. In 2019, 22 localities were below this threshold; by 2023, the figure increased to 27, and in 2024, it reached 32. Most of these areas are in economically vibrant southern regions where rapid urbanization and economic development prevail.

Of particular concern, urban fertility rates dropped to just 1.67 children per woman in 2024, far below the rural rate of 2.08. While rural areas once exceeded the replacement level of 2.1, they too have dipped below that mark in the past two years. Without timely interventions, this trend could worsen, with long-term social and economic consequences.

Low fertility threatens the sustainability and development of society. Despite existing pro-birth policies, many families lack the motivation to have children due to persistent economic, cultural, and social challenges. A collective, society-wide effort is urgently needed to reverse the trend.

Let's examine the roots of Vietnam’s declining birthrate, aiming to raise awareness, share practical solutions, and highlight the voices of citizens. The goal: to ensure sustainable human capital development and build a happier, more prosperous society.

A looming challenge for Vietnam's future

For the third consecutive year, Vietnam’s birthrate has fallen below replacement levels, particularly in major cities. Without bold and timely action, the country faces population aging, labor shortages, and increasing social welfare burdens.

Minh Trang (35), a civil servant in Hanoi, and her husband decided not to have a second child, choosing instead to invest fully in their 10-year-old daughter. Both originally from smaller provinces, they struggled financially after settling in Hanoi. Now that their daughter is more independent, they prefer to focus on their careers and personal goals rather than return to the exhausting demands of childcare.

Bui Thi Kim Tuyen, a primary school teacher in Can Tho, cited economic hardship and a lack of family support as reasons for having only one child. Her husband’s income as a painter is unstable, and her aging in-laws are too frail to help raise more children.

Many young people are also actively choosing to remain child-free. Rather than rushing into marriage, they prioritize education, personal growth, mental health, and career development. Parenthood, once seen as life’s ultimate fulfillment, has become an option weighed against personal freedom.

Pham Duy, 32, a tech worker in Ho Chi Minh City, shared: “I don’t hate kids, but I’m not ready to give up sleep or freedom to care for one. Being single is easy and peaceful. I’m not in a hurry to marry.”

A 2023 survey by the Population Department revealed that 76% of urban couples do not wish to have a second child, primarily due to the high cost of raising children - from food and healthcare to tuition and housing. In Da Nang, lack of affordable housing is a major deterrent. In Can Tho, low-wage factory workers face grueling hours with little time for relationships or childrearing. Even skilled workers are burdened with stress, which may contribute to delayed childbirth, infertility, and reduced fertility.

Support systems for parents - such as public daycare, child allowances, and flexible parental leave - remain limited, especially in the private sector. The fast pace of urban life and demanding work environments force many families to rely on grandparents. Without their help, raising additional children becomes a distant dream. Women also risk job loss, stalled promotions, and discrimination after giving birth.

Alarming figures

Vietnam’s total fertility rate (TFR) in 2024 was just 1.91, down from 2.11 in 2021 and 1.96 in 2023. In Ho Chi Minh City, the TFR has hovered between 1.2 and 1.6 for 25 years, reaching just 1.4 in 2024. The average age of first marriage there has surpassed 30. In Hanoi, the TFR in 2024 ranged between 1.6 and 1.7 - well below the threshold needed to sustain population levels.

Deputy Minister of Health Nguyen Thi Lien Huong acknowledged that the national birthrate has remained below replacement for three consecutive years. Even 2024 - considered a “lucky” year - did not reverse the trend.

If current fertility levels persist, Vietnam will exit its “golden population” period by 2039, peak in labor force size by 2042, and face population decline starting in 2054. This will lead to labor shortages, economic stagnation, and rapid aging.

According to the Population Department, 19 provinces in southern Vietnam already show signs of stalled population growth. Without urgent measures, negative population growth could become a reality.

Experts note a generational shift in values. Many young people now prioritize self-development over traditional family roles. They are not opposed to family but don’t view it as essential. Some remain single, delay marriage, or choose to raise only one child despite societal pressure.

Low fertility is not driven by one factor alone. Financial burdens, lifestyle changes, and inconsistent policy support all contribute. Prof. Nguyen Dinh Cu, former director of the Institute for Population and Social Affairs at the National Economics University, noted that today’s childbearing generation, born after 1990, was heavily influenced by Vietnam’s family planning policies and globalized values. Most are highly independent and less interested in having large families.

Persistently low fertility reshapes family structures, cultural life, and social infrastructure, rendering schools, hospitals, and housing underused while placing greater demands on elder care systems. Healthcare costs for seniors are 7–8 times higher than for children.

Several provinces with low birthrates have introduced small financial incentives. In Bạc Lieu, Tien Giang, and Long An, women under 35 who give birth to two children receive a one-time bonus of around 40 USD. In Ho Chi Minh City, the amount is about 120 USD. Pham Chanh Trung, head of the city’s Population Department, said these incentives help cover prenatal and postnatal healthcare. A new proposal also aims to fully fund premarital health screenings and genetic testing for all newlyweds.

Increasing the birthrate is a long-term mission that requires both policy and social infrastructure. Financial aid is helpful but insufficient. What’s truly needed is an ecosystem that makes having and raising children safe, sustainable, and appealing. Every child must be welcomed and raised with security and dignity.

Nhan Dan