Despite global market volatility, Vietnam’s coffee exports continue to soar as international buyers race to lock in orders. As of May 15, Vietnamese businesses had exported nearly 736,600 tons of coffee, earning approximately USD 4.2 billion, according to data from the General Department of Customs.

Although export volume declined slightly by 5.5% year-on-year, total value surged 56.7%, making coffee Vietnam’s second-highest grossing agricultural export - outpacing seafood (USD 3.64 billion) and fruits and vegetables (USD 1.93 billion).

The average export price of coffee reached USD 5,709 per ton, up 66.3% from USD 3,433 per ton during the same period last year.

Global demand surges despite price hikes

Remarkably, even as coffee prices rise globally, international demand for Vietnamese coffee remains robust.

In the first four months of the year, Germany spent USD 628 million on Vietnamese coffee - up 97.6% year-on-year. Italy followed with USD 307.6 million (up 33.8%), Spain with USD 292.5 million (up 51.4%), the US with USD 236.8 million (up 56.8%), Japan with USD 260 million (up 43.6%), and Russia with USD 213.4 million (up 54.8%).

Mexico notably increased its imports more than 54-fold compared to the same period last year.

Domestic prices and production outlook

As of May 21, domestic coffee prices showed a slight decline, with raw beans selling at around VND 125,000/kg.

On the London International Exchange, Robusta coffee (Vietnam’s dominant variety) for July 2025 delivery was priced at USD 4,903/ton, while the September contract was at USD 4,895/ton.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment estimates Vietnam's total coffee cultivation area for 2025 at 718,000 hectares, producing roughly 1.95 million tons. After accounting for the 736,600 tons already exported, the country still holds over 1.2 million tons for domestic consumption and future exports.

2025-2026 season expected to rebound

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently revised its forecast for Vietnam’s coffee output for the 2024–2025 season (October 2024 to September 2025) down to 29 million bags (60kg each), a 3.65% drop from previous estimates.

However, the 2025–2026 season is projected to bounce back with a 6.9% increase, reaching 31 million bags - 30 million of Robusta and 1 million of Arabica. Stockpiles carried into the new season are expected to total around 939,000 bags.

USDA forecasts Vietnam’s coffee exports for the upcoming season to rise 4.65% to 27 million bags of green coffee - about 1.2 million more than the current season.

The USDA also reported a 23% drop in exports during the first half of the current season compared to the same period last year, largely due to farmers stockpiling coffee in anticipation of higher prices. However, exports are expected to rebound in the coming months as farmers clear inventory ahead of the new harvest in Q4 this year.

Experts predict that if the current momentum continues, Vietnam’s coffee export revenue could reach as high as USD 7 billion by the end of 2025 - despite an unpredictable global market.

Tam An