The Ministry of Health has proposed a funding package of 650 billion VND (approximately USD 25.6 million) to support women who give birth to two children before the age of 35, along with an additional 151 billion VND (USD 6 million) in financial incentives for families with only two daughters. These measures aim to address Vietnam’s record-low fertility rate and persistent gender imbalance at birth.

The proposal is detailed in the Ministry’s draft Population Law, as the country faces mounting dual challenges in population management, particularly declining birth rates.

Minister of Health Dao Hong Lan recently revealed that Vietnam's current total fertility rate is at its historical lowest. As of 2024, this marks the third consecutive year the fertility rate has fallen below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, standing at only 1.91. Forecasts suggest the rate will continue to drop.

“If fertility continues to decline, Vietnam will exit its ‘golden population period’ by 2039, reach its peak working-age population by 2042, and begin experiencing negative population growth after 2054,” the Ministry stated.

In addition, the gender imbalance at birth has remained critically high for nearly 20 years. In 2024, the sex ratio at birth stands at 111.4 boys per 100 girls. If this trend persists, Vietnam is projected to have a surplus of 1.5 million men aged 15-49 by 2039, rising to 2.5 million by 2059.

This could lead to structural disruptions in families, delayed or impossible marriages for many men, and increased risks of human trafficking, gender-based violence, prostitution, and transnational crimes.

Breakthrough policy proposals

To prevent these outcomes, the Ministry of Health has proposed several targeted measures with a total estimated budget exceeding 5.36 trillion VND (around USD 211 million). These include cash or in-kind support for women who give birth, who have two children, or who have two children before age 35; living expense subsidies; meal support for preschool children; and free or reduced prenatal check-up costs.

Of this, approximately USD 25.6 million will be allocated as financial or in-kind support for women giving birth to two children before age 35. An additional USD 6 million is proposed as incentives for families with only two daughters.

According to the Ministry, such support measures are intended to help women extend maternity leave, encourage men’s participation in family care, reduce pregnancy-related costs, and ultimately promote childbirth - especially encouraging women to have two children before turning 35.

These initiatives are expected to prevent a deep and prolonged fertility decline, maintain replacement-level fertility, and counteract labor force depletion, population decline, and reduced economic growth.

Moreover, the ministry calculates that improving population quality through premarital health counseling, prenatal and newborn screening, diagnosis, and treatment will cost more than 3 trillion VND (approximately USD 118 million).

Beyond financial support: changing attitudes toward childbirth among youth

Low fertility is not unique to Vietnam - it is a global issue. In fact, no country has successfully raised its fertility rate back to replacement level after a steep decline, despite numerous economic measures.

Speaking with VietNamNet, Professor Giang Thanh Long, senior lecturer at the School of Economics and Public Management, National Economics University (Hanoi), emphasized that encouraging childbirth should not rely on direct appeals. Instead, it must be approached through long-term strategies to improve living conditions, healthcare, education, and life opportunities.

Population and development expert Professor Nguyen Dinh Cu added that, alongside diverse support policies - such as cost subsidies, personal income tax reductions, exemptions from community contributions for parents of young children, and elderly allowances - societal attitudes toward childbirth among young people must evolve.

He believes young people should be guided to look beyond immediate concerns or conveniences and recognize the deeper values of family and parenthood.

“Beyond social welfare, we also need well-being within families. That’s why I often say, ‘Plan for old age while you’re still young.’ Moreover, having children gives us the motivation to strive economically and allows us to experience the full spectrum of emotions - love and responsibility,” Professor Nguyen Dinh Cu shared.

Vo Thu