This question serves as a strategic compass for a national development proposal to be submitted to the Politburo, aiming to realize Vietnam’s ambition in what he called the “era of national resurgence.”

He emphasized: “We all desire a stronger, more developed Vietnam. The only way to achieve that is to gather contributions from everyone - from central to local levels, from institutions and organizations to each business and citizen.”

The goal of double-digit GDP growth is not merely a statistic. It is tied to the nation's long-term vision for its centennial milestones in 2030 and 2045, striving for sustainable growth, stability, and improved quality of life.

A key shift in approach this time is the use of “reverse access.” Rather than relying solely on top-down planning, the Central Committee for Policy and Strategy will actively listen to insights from economic stakeholders, localities, and businesses. Effective ideas will be transformed into actionable, institutionalized policies.

Quang affirmed that the Party and State have already undertaken bold reforms, including strategic policy resolutions and institutional restructuring. Yet the challenge now is turning these visions into practical actions that translate into wealth and a brighter future.

A golden window to escape the middle-income trap

At the forum, Dr. Can Van Luc, a member of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council and Chief Economist at BIDV, highlighted Vietnam’s rare alignment of “heavenly timing, geographical advantage, and internal harmony” - a trio of strategic assets that could catapult the country beyond the middle-income trap toward high-income status by 2045.

First, the global shift toward green and digital economies presents unprecedented leapfrogging opportunities for latecomer nations. Vietnam also benefits from modern trade agreements such as the EVFTA, CPTPP, and RCEP, which are deepening its integration into global supply chains.

Second, Vietnam's geography makes it a natural hub in the global reallocation of manufacturing and investment. Its renewable energy potential and growing infrastructure network enhance this advantage.

Third, the internal “harmony” is Vietnam’s youthful, abundant labor force, strong entrepreneurial spirit, and rising middle class - projected to expand from 22% of the population in 2025 to 70% by 2045. Combined with the leadership’s commitment to reform, these factors lay a firm foundation for breakout growth.

However, Luc also cautioned that Vietnam faces six major challenges, particularly low competitiveness and the risk of stagnation. To become a high-income country by 2045, Vietnam must achieve average annual GDP growth of 8-10% from 2026 to 2030, and at least 7.5% from 2031 to 2045.

Only 34 of 142 middle-income countries since 1990 have made it to high-income status - most by joining the EU or capitalizing on special resources. “Opportunity is real - but it will not come by itself,” Luc concluded. “Only bold institutional reform, innovation, productivity improvement, and social consensus can carry us forward.”

Business leaders speak out

Nguyen Quoc Hiep, Chairman of the Vietnam Association of Construction Contractors, warned that aiming for 8% growth in 2025 and double digits in 2026–2030 is highly ambitious given current domestic and international uncertainties. He pointed to real estate instability as a major hindrance, with housing prices in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City rising 3–5 times since 2022.

Land prices, in particular, have surged as much as tenfold since 2023, accounting for up to 30% of urban property costs. “House prices are chasing land prices, and land prices are chasing house prices, with no end in sight,” Hiep cautioned, warning of a possible housing bubble. He urged for regulatory controls to rein in land prices.

Le Tien Truong, Chairman of Vietnam National Textile and Garment Group (Vinatex), said that while the industry’s exports surpassed USD 45 billion, achieving the 10% annual growth needed to reach USD 80 billion by 2030 is impossible without a shift toward high-tech, high-productivity, and eco-friendly models.

He stressed the need for green transition in the textile sector, with circular and sustainable practices being vital for deeper global integration.

Nguyen Quoc Ky, Chairman of Vietravel, argued that tourism could be a key growth engine. To reach targets of 35 million foreign visitors and 160 million domestic travelers by 2030 (accounting for 14–15% of GDP), Vietnam must reform its visa policy and build stronger domestic tour operators.

He pointed out that Vietnam currently offers visa-free entry to 26 countries and e-visas to 80, while Thailand waives visas for 112 countries and Malaysia for 150. He recommended expanding visa-free access to at least 70 countries.

Mai Kieu Lien, CEO of Vinamilk, emphasized that not all sectors need to grow at the same pace. What matters most is restoring business confidence. She urged the government to simplify overlapping legal frameworks and improve its “listen and support” approach during tough times.

A roadmap for collective action

In his closing remarks, Tran Luu Quang reiterated that double-digit growth is achievable - but only with collective commitment from government, businesses, and society.

He laid out four conditions:

First, full consensus and collaboration across the political system, private sector, and the public.

Second, prompt removal of institutional bottlenecks.

Third, a clear strategy based on science, technology, innovation, and digital transformation.

Fourth, readiness to adapt to external shocks.

He affirmed: “Vietnam has never had a greater opportunity. Reforming institutions with bold thinking is the key to transformation.”

The forum underscored a clear national ambition for double-digit growth to be reflected in documents for the 14th Party Congress. Only about 25% of middle-income countries have successfully made the leap to high income. Those that succeeded shared common factors: deep integration, radical institutional reform, and long-term investment in science and technology.

Vietnam must not miss its “last train,” Quang warned. Achieving 10% growth is not a dream. It is a target - if Vietnam can reform decisively and fully harness social resources, especially from the private sector and young intellectuals.

The question “What must be done, and how?” must be answered not in conferences or forums, but in action. It calls for bold political will, institutional innovation, and a private sector that believes in the future.

Tu Giang-Lan Anh