Gender imbalance at birth is spreading across many localities in Vietnam, posing a growing risk of a male surplus and female shortage. Among the most affected areas are Bac Ninh and Hanoi.

This data is presented in Vietnam’s first national report on civil registration and vital statistics for the period 2021-2024, jointly conducted by the General Statistics Office.

The natural sex ratio at birth (SRB) typically ranges between 104 and 106 boys per 100 girls. Any figure exceeding this range suggests deliberate gender selection.

In Vietnam, gender imbalance at birth began to emerge as a serious issue in the early 2000s and became significantly more pronounced from 2006 onward. Today, according to the General Department of Population under the Ministry of Health, the situation has become increasingly critical.

Despite numerous policies and interventions aimed at addressing the issue, the gender gap remains wide. Vietnam's SRB from 2021 onward has consistently surpassed the normal range, and it has shown an upward trend in recent years. In 2024, the SRB reached 110.7 boys per 100 girls.

"Clearly, despite the Government’s efforts to discourage gender-based interventions during pregnancy, the imbalance has not improved and has in fact worsened over the past two years," the General Statistics Office stated in its report.

Five provinces with the highest gender imbalance

The imbalance is most pronounced in provinces from Quang Tri northward, particularly those in the Red River Delta region.

From 2021 to 2024, 10 out of 11 provinces in the Red River Delta recorded an SRB higher than 110 boys per 100 girls. The five provinces with the highest rates in the country are Bac Ninh (119.6), Vinh Phuc (118.5), Hanoi (118.1), Hung Yen (116.7), and Hai Duong (115.3).

Several provinces in the northern midland and mountainous region also reported high SRBs, most exceeding 109 boys per 100 girls. These include Bac Giang (116.3), Son La (115.0), Lang Son (114.5), and Phu Tho (113.6).

In 2024 alone, Hanoi recorded the highest gender imbalance in the country at 123.3 boys per 100 girls - the city’s highest rate since 2021. Vinh Phuc, Hai Phong, and Bac Ninh followed closely.

Students at a primary school in Hanoi on opening day.

According to Dr. Pham Vu Hoang, Deputy Director of the General Department of Population, although Vietnam experienced gender imbalance later than other countries, the rate has increased rapidly and spread widely, with unique characteristics.

Dr. Hoang explained that the imbalance is especially high from the first birth, and becomes even more pronounced in subsequent births among families without sons - particularly those with two daughters.

The issue is more severe among couples with higher education levels and better economic conditions.

Various factors contribute to this trend, including the misuse of scientific and technological tools to select the fetus’s gender. Experts note that as the fertility rate declines (currently averaging 1.91 children per woman), many families only have one child. However, cultural preferences for sons persist, prompting efforts to influence gender outcomes.

Consequences beyond a male surplus

The General Statistics Office warns that gender imbalance at birth disrupts natural population dynamics and threatens demographic stability. The resulting male surplus will affect family formation and the structure of the marriage system. A significant number of young men may face difficulties finding spouses, delaying marriage or remaining single.

"An excess of men and a shortage of women will leave many men unmarried," said Dr. Hoang. Projections estimate that Vietnam will have 1.5 million surplus men by 2034, a number expected to grow to 2.5 million within the following 25 years.

According to the report, provinces from Hue southward show minimal imbalance, with SRBs ranging from 105 to 108 boys per 100 girls - close to the natural average.

This serves as a basis for the recommendation to concentrate future policy efforts in northern Vietnam rather than applying uniform measures nationwide.

Vo Thu