Despite global economic headwinds, Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 7.52% in the first half of 2025 - a robust figure that lays a solid foundation for achieving the annual growth target of 8% or higher.

Positive outlook for the second half of the year

Economic prospects for the latter half of 2025 remain optimistic, with growth expected in public investment, science and technology, digital transformation, innovation, consumer spending, and increased credit flow into the economy.

According to the General Statistics Office (GSO), Vietnam’s GDP grew by 7.52% year-on-year in the first six months, marking the highest mid-year growth rate from 2011 to 2025.

Several macroeconomic indicators also posted impressive results, including inflation, state budget revenue, and public investment disbursement - aligning closely with the government's first-quarter economic scenario.

GSO Director Nguyen Thi Huong attributed the strong performance to favorable conditions. On the production side, all economic sectors and types of enterprises reported uniform growth.

The industrial and construction sectors were key drivers, with added value growing by 8.07% and 9.62% respectively.

Market-oriented service sectors such as transport, logistics, accommodation, and food services also expanded significantly, contributing to production, exports, and tourism.

From a demand perspective, public investment disbursement surged, especially for key infrastructure projects. Foreign direct investment (FDI) rose sharply, particularly in high-tech and semiconductor sectors, enhancing the economy’s long-term production capacity.

Vietnam’s exports surpassed USD 219 billion in the first half of 2025, up 14.4% year-on-year, reflecting strong international demand for Vietnamese goods.

“The harmonious combination of supply and demand factors has created a solid growth engine for the Vietnamese economy,” emphasized Nguyen Thi Huong.

Vigorous efforts to meet 2025 growth targets

In a recent report on Vietnam’s economic performance in the first half of 2025 and projections for the full year, Dr. Can Van Luc, Chief Economist at BIDV, highlighted the economy’s bright spots.

Fiscal policy remained expansionary yet targeted, while monetary policy was managed proactively and flexibly, in close coordination with fiscal measures.

The government aims for full-year credit growth of around 16%. Macroeconomic stability was maintained, and major economic balances were ensured.

Disbursed FDI capital grew by 32.6% year-on-year, reaching an estimated USD 11.72 billion - the highest level in five years.

Another key highlight is effective inflation control. The consumer price index (CPI) rose by an average of 3.27% in the first half, while core inflation increased by 3.16% compared to the same period in 2024.

Lending interest rates fell slightly, and credit growth gained momentum. State budget revenue also surged, driven by strong output, consumption, and exports.

Dr. Can Van Luc emphasized that an essential factor behind socio-economic growth in the first half was the restructuring of administrative units by the Party and State.

The implementation of a streamlined two-tier local government model and institutional reforms - particularly the "four-pillar framework" - opened up new development opportunities.

Building trust for investors and enterprises

While positive growth in the first half has eased pressure for the rest of 2025, achieving the full-year growth target of 8% or more will require GDP growth of 8.33% in the third quarter and 8.51% in the fourth quarter, averaging 8.42% for the second half.

This is a significant challenge amid ongoing global uncertainties that could adversely affect Vietnam's open economy.

To boost growth, economists recommend urgently implementing institutional reforms and removing obstacles facing businesses, alongside harmonizing fiscal and monetary policies.

According to Dr. Can Van Luc, it is crucial to effectively implement institutional breakthroughs, operate streamlined post-merger administrative systems efficiently, curb waste, and genuinely improve the business environment.

Additionally, Vietnam must remain adaptive to U.S. tariff policies, effectively implement consumption stimulus programs, and enhance growth quality by establishing a national productivity commission and launching productivity-enhancing campaigns.

For long-term sustainable growth, Dr. Dang Duc Anh, Deputy Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management, stressed the need to maintain macroeconomic stability, build investor and business confidence, and retain prudent and flexible monetary policies.

He also emphasized continued administrative reform, simplifying procedures, ensuring transparency, promoting innovation, fostering regional connectivity, improving productivity, and encouraging green and environmentally responsible development.

Infrastructure modernization fuels development

Vietnam’s GDP growth of 7.52% in the first half of 2025 represents the highest mid-year rate in the past 15 years.

The National Assembly has allocated nearly VND 830 trillion (approximately USD 35.5 billion) in planned public investment for 2025, with additional funding from increased state revenue.

Ministries, sectors, and localities are working aggressively to disburse 100% of this capital, which is critical for economic growth.

To this end, bottlenecks in investment procedures, building materials, and land clearance must be swiftly resolved to accelerate the implementation of national key projects.

According to the GSO, science and technology, innovation, and digital transformation are now regarded as vital drivers of economic growth.

Enterprises are encouraged to embrace new opportunities, adopt AI technologies in production, and increase investment in research and development to reduce costs and boost competitiveness.

Externally, Vietnam continues to attract robust FDI, achieving its highest level since 2009. The GSO recommends that in the coming period, the government and localities should prioritize attracting high-tech FDI projects capable of transferring technology to domestic firms.

This requires focused investment promotion efforts, continued improvement of the business environment, simplified administrative procedures, and transparent policies to increase both the quantity and quality of FDI.

PV