Amid a severe shortage of new supply, apartment prices in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) have continued to rise. Recently, an ultra-luxury project stunned the market by announcing projected prices of over USD 1.2 million for a one-bedroom unit.

A market dominated by luxury housing

According to a VietNamNet reporter’s survey, since the beginning of the year and prior to the administrative boundary changes, almost no new apartment projects have been launched for sale in HCMC. The available supply mainly comes from subsequent sales phases of existing developments. As a result, the market severely lacks product diversity.

For example, a project near the former Thu Duc city center is currently releasing over 40 units in a new phase. While promotional materials advertise a price of just VND 55 million/m² (around USD 2,160/m²), a company sales representative told the reporter that only large-sized units remain, priced between VND 6.5 - 9.3 billion (USD 255,000 - 365,000) per apartment.

Another brokerage offering 300 units in the next sales phase of a project in former Thu Duc quoted VND 50 million/m² (around USD 1,960/m²), but informed the reporter that the units were “sold out.”

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HCMC’s housing market faces a severe supply crunch, dominated by high-end apartments. Photo: Anh Phuong

Speaking with VietNamNet, Mr. Le Hoang Chau, Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association (HoREA), stated that the housing supply shortage in HCMC has persisted since 2021. In new projects, there are virtually no units priced under VND 30 million/m² (about USD 1,175/m²), making affordable housing essentially unavailable.

Mr. Chau noted that from 2020 to 2023, high-end housing made up 70% of the city’s market supply. In both last year and the first half of this year, every residential project launched fell within the luxury segment.

“Not only is there a lack of affordable commercial housing, but even the mid-range segment has disappeared. This leads to an imbalanced and unsustainable housing market in HCMC, resembling an inverted pyramid,” Mr. Chau said.

According to HoREA statistics, only four commercial housing projects in HCMC qualified for capital mobilization in the first half of the year, offering around 3,400 units - all within the high-end category.

Mr. Chau also reported that housing prices have continuously increased in recent years. Last year, the average selling price reached VND 90 million/m² (approximately USD 3,520/m²), meaning an average unit cost about VND 9.7 billion (USD 379,000). To expand supply and help ease pricing pressures, he urged authorities to accelerate the resolution of legal hurdles for roughly 220 projects.

Luxury one-bedroom units top USD 1.2 million

In the midst of this housing crunch, a real estate developer recently shocked the market by announcing projected prices (rumor prices) for luxury apartments at a new project in central HCMC.

Specifically, a 53m² unit is priced at VND 24 - 25.5 billion (USD 940,000 - 1 million); one-bedroom apartments ranging from 51.02m² to 64.57m² are priced between VND 29.5 - 31.5 billion (USD 1.17 - 1.25 million); larger one-bedroom units from 67m² to 72m² go for VND 33.5 - 35 billion (USD 1.33 - 1.39 million); and two-bedroom units (88.58m² - 117.05m²) are listed at VND 50.5 - 52 billion (USD 2 million - 2.06 million).

According to CBRE Vietnam’s Q2 2025 housing market report, residential supply in HCMC during the first half of the year dropped by 16% year-over-year, hitting the lowest level in a decade.

As of Q2 2025, the average primary apartment price in HCMC reached VND 82 million/m² (USD 3,210/m²), with an absorption rate of 74% of available units - a decline compared to the same period last year.

Ms. Duong Thuy Dung, Managing Director of CBRE Vietnam, noted that unlike HCMC, nearby markets such as former Binh Duong and Long An are enjoying robust supply. Although this trend isn't new, it has become more apparent in the first half of the year.

“Compared to HCMC, apartment prices in suburban markets are about 50% lower. Landed property prices are lower by up to 80%. These outer markets still offer substantial room for price growth. In the next three years, primary apartment prices are projected to rise by up to 11% annually, while landed homes may see an increase of about 12% annually,” Ms. Dung said.

Looking ahead to Q3 2025, Mr. Vo Hong Thang, Investment Director at DKRA Group, forecasts apartment supply will range from 9,000 to 11,000 units, primarily concentrated in former HCMC and Binh Duong.

The luxury apartment segment is expected to continue dominating the HCMC market, while mid-range units will lead in the suburban regions.

“Price levels are showing a slight upward trend in areas anticipated to benefit from the administrative boundary merger. Developers are responding with flexible strategies such as adjusting payment terms, promotional policies, and interest rate support to stimulate demand,” Mr. Thang observed.

Anh Phuong