In the latter half of 2025, the country is expected to experience various hazardous weather patterns, including heatwaves, heavy rainfall, storms, and severe cold spells. The ENSO phenomenon is forecasted to remain in a neutral state.

The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has just released its seasonal climate outlook covering August 2025 to January 2026, warning of continued dangerous weather conditions.

According to meteorological experts, a neutral ENSO phase can make weather more difficult to predict, as it lacks the dominant influence seen during El Niño or La Niña phases. In recent months, extreme weather events have frequently occurred, causing damage to life and property and significantly affecting livelihoods across many regions.

Notably, between June and July 2025, the East Sea saw two storms and one tropical depression. Although early in the storm season, Typhoon Wutip brought extreme and unusual flooding to central Vietnam, a rare event in regional meteorological history.

From August to October 2025, around 6 to 7 storms or tropical depressions are expected to form in the East Sea, with 2 to 3 possibly making landfall in Vietnam - a figure close to the multi-year average.

In the context of climate change, experts do not rule out the possibility of unusually strong or rapidly intensifying storms during this period.

From August to October, moderate to heavy rainfall is forecasted to be concentrated in the northern region during August and September, and in the central region in September and October. These rain events could lead to flash floods, landslides in mountainous areas, and flooding in low-lying zones.

At the same time, heatwaves are expected to continue in the north, the area from Thanh Hoa to Hue, and the coastal south-central region through August. From September, heatwaves will gradually subside, with the number of hot days likely to be lower than the average for the same period in previous years.

Cold air systems are projected to strengthen from October 2025.

During this period, average national temperatures are expected to align with historical norms. Total rainfall is predicted to be around the average level countrywide, though coastal areas from northeastern Vietnam to Quang Ngai may see 10-30% more rainfall in September and October.

Cold spells to increase from November 2025

Looking further ahead, the meteorological agency forecasts that from November 2025 to January 2026, the number of storms or tropical depressions in the East Sea and their impact on Vietnam will be similar to previous years (historical average: 2.9 storms in the East Sea, 1.1 making landfall).

During this period, there is a heightened risk of moderate to heavy rain across Ha Tinh to Quang Ngai and eastern Gia Lai to Lam Dong between November and December 2025.

Cold spells are expected to intensify and become more frequent from November, with harsh cold conditions likely to match historical averages.

Total rainfall from Nghe An to Lam Dong during November and December is forecasted to be 10-25% higher than average. In January 2026, rainfall across the country is expected to remain near historical norms.

The meteorological agency also warns that the second half of the year could bring extreme weather phenomena nationwide, including thunderstorms, whirlwinds, lightning, and strong winds, particularly in August-September and November-December 2025.

There is also a risk of flash floods and landslides in the northern mountains and north-central region during August and September. Central and Central Highlands provinces may face flooding between October and December. Frost and ice could impact public health and agricultural production.

The agency recommends that local authorities, relevant agencies, and the public closely monitor weather forecasts and climate warnings to proactively prepare and mitigate damage caused by natural disasters.

Bao Anh