The Government's online conference with local authorities on Vietnam's 2025 economic growth scenario concluded with a bold declaration from the Prime Minister: “GDP growth in 2025 must reach 8.3%-8.5%, with a target of over 10% in 2026.”

This is not merely an economic objective but a political will and strategic momentum for Vietnam to break through and enter the 2026-2030 phase with renewed determination.

A goal driven by ambition

The 8.3%-8.5% growth target surpasses the 6.5%-7% goal earlier revised by the National Assembly at the start of the year.

In a world still beset by economic uncertainties and many nations lowering their growth forecasts, Vietnam’s high-growth ambition signals a strong will to overcome difficulties and achieve a significant leap forward.

The Prime Minister emphasized that rapid growth must not come at the cost of stability. The government aims to maintain macroeconomic balance and keep inflation below 4.5%. This reflects a careful approach, combining accelerated development with sustainability.

To meet this ambitious goal, the government has called on localities, especially economic powerhouses, to exceed planned growth targets: Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City aim for 8.5%, Quang Ninh 12.5%, and Thai Nguyen 8%.

State-owned enterprises, seen as market leaders, are expected to exceed their original growth targets by at least 0.5%.

This level of commitment demands unified action across the entire political system, from local authorities to businesses.

High growth in 2025 is not only an economic goal but also a message of Vietnam’s will and development aspiration. (Photo: Hoang Ha)

Three pillars of growth: fiscal - monetary - investment

Expansive fiscal policy. The government will continue expansive fiscal policies with a target to disburse 100% of approximately USD 40 billion in public investment.

Financial resources will be mobilized aggressively: expanding revenue streams, cutting costs, issuing long-term government bonds, and prioritizing strategic infrastructure, digital economy, green economy, and circular economy projects.

Monetary policy supporting growth. The State Bank of Vietnam plans to increase credit growth by around 16%, ready to support priority sectors.

Large-scale credit packages - USD 20 billion for infrastructure and digital technology, along with a housing loan program for individuals under 35 - are seen as dual-purpose tools to both spur growth and address social welfare.

Explosive investment to accelerate progress

Total social investment in 2025 is projected at USD 112 billion, with public investment accounting for USD 40 billion.

In the second half of the year alone, Vietnam must mobilize approximately USD 111 billion, USD 3 billion more than required under the 8% growth scenario.

Of this, private investment is expected to reach USD 60 billion (USD 3 billion higher than the 8% growth scenario), FDI disbursement around USD 16 billion, and other investment approximately USD 7 billion.

These figures underscore the urgency and strong aspiration for progress.

At the conference, ministries, sectors, localities, and businesses generally agreed on the above directions and affirmed that the 8.3%-8.5% growth target for 2025 is achievable.

Reaching this goal will generate momentum and confidence heading into the 2026-2030 phase and help fulfill strategic objectives for the 2021-2030 period.

Clearly, the entire system is demonstrating strong commitment toward achieving high growth this year.

Barriers to overcome

Despite impressive GDP growth in Q2 and the first half of 2025 (7.96% and 7.52% respectively), international organizations project that Vietnam's 2025 growth will not exceed 6.6% due to vulnerabilities in global trade.

Specifically: ADB forecasts 6.6% growth in 2025 and 6.5% in 2026; OECD estimates 6.2% for 2025 and 6% for 2026; and the World Bank lowered its 2025 forecast to 5.8%, down from 6.8% in March 2025.

Several challenges emerged in the first half of the year:

The PMI index remained below 50 for several consecutive months, indicating low confidence in domestic manufacturing.

Exports face headwinds. Export growth is expected to decelerate sharply due to declining orders and rising inventory, which directly impacts the industrial sector, especially manufacturing, as output becomes harder to sell abroad.

Weak consumer demand. Services account for more than half of GDP, primarily driven by consumption. However, personal spending growth is slowing, even more than last year.

For example, wholesale and retail sales rose only 7.03% in the first half of 2025, lower than the 7.34% recorded during the same period in 2024. This trend is unlikely to improve, as workers are becoming more cautious with spending.

Private investment recovery remains fragile. Though there are signs of recovery, private investment is still slow and unstable.

Obstacles in project clearance are only partly resolved. Over 2,887 investment projects across the country remain stalled, involving more than USD 235 billion in capital and 347,000 hectares of land - requiring urgent solutions from central authorities.

New growth drivers need time. Emerging engines such as science and technology, digital transformation, financial centers, and free trade zones are still in early stages and need time to produce results.

While FDI inflows are positive, Vietnam has yet to attract major strategic investors with large, high-tech projects capable of leading value chains and building ecosystems.

Business closures remain high. In the first half of 2025, about 127,200 businesses withdrew from the market, up 15.5% from the same period last year - an average of nearly 21,200 closures per month. This signals troubling weaknesses in the business community’s resilience.

Institutional reform: the breakthrough of breakthroughs

A core issue hindering socio-economic development is administrative inertia. Its most obvious consequence is turning opportunities into risks.

Institutional bottlenecks remain a major stumbling block. Despite attention and directives, many laws, policies, and administrative procedures remain outdated and cumbersome, creating difficulties for businesses and citizens. Fear of making mistakes and avoiding responsibility persists, while discipline and enforcement remain inconsistent in some areas.

The ongoing restructuring of government agencies, though promising long-term benefits, is causing short-term difficulties - particularly in administrative processes and business licensing.

To overcome these challenges and achieve sustainable growth, Vietnam must implement bold, synchronized reforms - particularly institutional reform - to unlock resources, streamline public investment procedures, attract more FDI, improve the investment climate, and unleash new growth engines.

The aspiration to break through

Achieving high growth in 2025 is not just about numbers - it symbolizes Vietnam’s will and ambition to rise.

While others hesitate, Vietnam is boldly setting a high bar, demonstrating determination to avoid falling into a prolonged period of mediocre growth.

As the Prime Minister affirmed: “Meeting this goal will generate momentum and strength, creating confidence to step into 2026-2030 and successfully fulfill the strategic objectives of the 2021-2030 period.”

This is the embodiment of the spirit: “If difficulties double, our determination must triple” – a message to inspire the entire nation to unite and act for a breakthrough Vietnam.

But above all, macroeconomic stability must be preserved, as stability is the foundation of progress.

Tu Giang