Rising geopolitical tensions are typically a favorable factor for pushing gold prices up. Yet, global gold prices have declined since last week. 

At the first trading session of the week, global gold prices surged to $3,380/ounce but quickly reversed and dropped, despite rising tensions between Israel and Iran.

On the morning of June 23, international spot gold was at $3,364.7/ounce, down nearly 2 percent for the week. Gold futures for August 2025 delivery on the Comex New York traded at $3,364/ounce.

Domestically, gold prices also trended slightly downward. SJC gold bars were traded at VND117.7–119.7 million/tael (buying–selling). SJC 0.1-0.5 tael gold rings were listed at VND113.7–116.2 million/tael (buying–selling). Doji’s 9999 gold rings were at VND114.5–116.5 million/tael.

Nguyen Quang Huy from Nguyen Trai University said that last week, global gold prices once surpassed $3,400/ounce before slightly correcting to the current level.

This movement reflects not only the impact of market supply and demand but also the consequences of various geopolitical, monetary, and global investment sentiment factors.

Escalating Israel-Iran conflicts, with the US indirectly engaging through airstrikes, have occurred. Iran announced the closure of the Hormuz Strait, a critical global oil transport route, causing oil prices to surge sharply and reigniting inflationary pressures. The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues with fierce fighting, raising risks of spreading to Eastern Europe and creating widespread global unease.

In this context, gold becomes a top safe-haven asset, attracting significant capital from institutional investors, central banks, and hedge funds.

However, according to Huy, despite the overall upward trend, gold prices still experienced short-term technical corrections due to profit-taking by funds after a sharp rally, cautious sentiment ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, and capital flows shifting to energy and defense assets as oil prices surge.

“These corrections are necessary within the medium- to long-term upward trend and do not signal a reversal,” Huy said.

Meanwhile, financial expert Phan Dung Khanh stated that gold prices have been standing firmly at historic highs for the past two months. They are not continuing to rise sharply, and are not declining significantly. Additionally, most information and factors supporting gold prices recently have already been priced in.

Moreover, gold’s strong gains over the past two years have made it less attractive in terms of returns, especially as other assets begin to rise or offer lower gains. During this period, gold has been among the top-performing financial assets, leading to capital dispersion toward other investment channels, though investors have not completely withdrawn from gold.

Domestic market

Huy predicted that if the Middle East or Eastern European conflicts expand, global gold prices are likely to break the $3,500/ounce mark.

“If the Fed has to cut interest rates due to an economic downturn, gold will become even more attractive as a currency alternative. Central banks worldwide are quietly accumulating gold as part of a de-dollarization strategy,” the expert said.

According to Huy, in the next six months, domestic gold prices will be influenced by global gold price movements and the government’s and State Bank’s gold market regulations.

If international gold prices are adjusted, domestic prices will adjust accordingly, but the decline may be slower due to speculative factors.

Regarding the policies regulating domestic gold prices, Huy noted that narrowing the gap between domestic and global prices will be a top priority for macroeconomic stability. Developing a national gold exchange will help make the market more transparent, reduce speculation, and gradually bring gold prices closer to their true value. Expanding distribution channels or re-licensing gold imports could stabilize domestic supply and demand.

Phan Dung Khanh said domestic gold prices are always influenced by global prices. Over the past month, as international gold prices have been relatively calm, domestic prices have also stabilized, with fewer sharp fluctuations.

Gold is a globally traded asset, not bound by national borders, so international factors significantly impact gold prices, including Vietnam’s market. Global gold price movements typically have a substantial influence on domestic prices.

Compared to 2022-2023, when gold repeatedly set new highs, the current upward trend is less robust. This makes gold less attractive for short-term returns, though it remains a safe-haven asset in the long term. However, with many supportive factors in place, a sharp decline in gold prices during this period is highly unlikely, Khanh predicted.

Manh Ha