Data from Hanoi’s Department of Transport (now the Department of Construction) shows the city had 6.9 million motorbikes by the end of 2024, with around 6.4 million running on gasoline. This excludes bikes registered in other provinces but regularly circulating in the capital.

Based on the phased ban, experts estimate millions of gas-powered bikes will soon be forced out of Hanoi’s core.

One predicted scenario is that these vehicles will “drift” to Hanoi’s outskirts or nearby provinces like Bac Ninh, Hung Yen, Thai Nguyen, or Phu Tho - areas with looser emissions policies and no bans on older vehicles. However, this is only a short-term fix. As more cities adopt similar green policies, these bikes’ usable life will quickly expire.

This may trigger a wave of “gas bike dumping” in rural areas, shifting pollution outward. Others may be sold cheaply or discarded altogether, adding to mechanical waste and environmental concerns.

Transitioning to green transport needs strong foundations

The move toward green transport is necessary, especially for a congested and polluted metropolis like Hanoi. But many question whether the city’s infrastructure - from charging stations and electricity supply to electric vehicle availability and after-sales service - is ready for such a massive shift.

In a recent webinar hosted by Dan Viet, titled “Banning motorcycles and limiting gas cars in Hanoi: A strong move, but what support is needed?”, Khương Kim Tao, former Deputy Chief of the National Traffic Safety Committee Office, highlighted the crucial role motorcycles play in daily Vietnamese life.

"Motorcycles are essential for economic activity, especially in densely populated cities and rural areas where public transport is lacking," Tao said. "Yet it’s true they significantly contribute to urban air pollution."

Tao added that while Hanoi has set multiple green targets, implementation has lagged. The core issue lies in how tightly motorcycles are woven into the lives of middle- and low-income people.

Nguyen Manh Thang, Director of WhatCar Vietnam and admin of the OTO+ community, shared his observations from international models. Some cities banned gas motorcycles outright, while others used softer, gradual approaches depending on infrastructure readiness and pollution levels.

"In the early 2000s, Shenzhen, China, expanded its subway system and heavily invested in public transport," Thang said. "They offered tax incentives, financial aid for buying electric vehicles, dedicated parking for EVs, and restrictions on gasoline vehicle access."

In places like Beijing and Shanghai, electric two-wheelers dominate thanks to structured support systems. European cities such as London and Paris chose economic disincentives over outright bans - imposing hefty taxes on fossil fuel vehicles to encourage voluntary change.

Still, Thang warned that these global models cannot be directly applied to Hanoi due to its unique layout, high population density, dependency on motorbikes, and an underdeveloped public transport network.

"Hanoi needs a tailor-made roadmap that both reduces emissions and avoids disrupting citizens’ lives," he said. "A sound policy must come with solid infrastructure, or it won’t be sustainable."

Hoang Hiep