In a surprising shift influenced by volatile US tariffs, China has surged ahead as Vietnam’s largest seafood importer, spending over USD 1 billion in the first half of 2025 and officially surpassing the United States.

Seafood exports to China rise sharply

According to Vietnam Customs, seafood exports in June 2025 totaled over USD 906 million, an 8% increase from June 2024. For the first half of the year, Vietnam’s seafood exports reached USD 5.11 billion, up 15.9% year-on-year.

Data show that exports to major markets such as China, Japan, Thailand, and Brazil experienced double-digit growth during this period. Brazil recorded the sharpest rise with a 111.8% surge in June 2025 and 77.1% over the six-month period.

Notably, China imported more than USD 1 billion worth of Vietnamese seafood in the first six months - up 47.9% year-on-year - making it Vietnam’s top seafood buyer, ahead of the United States.

Throughout the year, China significantly increased purchases of various seafood products from Vietnam, with some categories seeing dramatic spikes. In January alone, China spent USD 70 million to import Vietnamese lobsters - nine times the amount from January 2024. Crab exports to China jumped 18-fold to USD 18.5 million.

In the first quarter of 2025, China (including Hong Kong) spent over USD 23 million importing Vietnamese mollusks with shells - a nearly 2,000% increase compared to Q1 2024. This figure far exceeded imports by the EU (USD 18 million) and the US (just over USD 6 million). While China accounted for only 4% of Vietnam’s mollusk exports in Q1 2024, that share soared to 37% this year.

Meanwhile, seafood exports to the US reached nearly USD 898 million in H1 2025, up 14.5% from a year earlier.

US orders spike before tariff enforcement, but momentum slows

According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), this positive growth was largely due to a spike in orders in May 2025, as US and Vietnamese businesses rushed to finalize deals ahead of retaliatory tariffs taking effect on July 9, as announced by the Trump administration in April.

However, this short-term surge reflects the broader instability of US-Vietnam trade relations. In June, seafood exports to the US dropped to USD 132 million, down 17.7% year-on-year.

With USD 898 million in H1 exports, the US has fallen to second place, accounting for 17.56% of Vietnam’s seafood export revenue, behind China’s 19.64%.

Vietnamese exporters pivot to Chinese market

VASEP attributes this shift to the unpredictability of US tariff policy, which has severely impacted production planning, contract execution, and delivery schedules. Constant changes in US trade policy have left importers uncertain about costs, while Vietnamese exporters struggle with pricing, timelines, and long-term planning.

The seafood industry, which is highly sensitive to seasonality and logistics costs, faces growing financial risks from such trade instability, with ripple effects extending from farming and processing to shipping and payments.

In contrast, while China is tightening quality standards, its more stable trade policies allow for better production planning and long-term contracts, VASEP noted.

Sao Ta Foods JSC reported consolidated profits of approximately USD 7 million in the first half of 2025. The company noted that actual profits could be higher, but accounting rules required a nearly 8% revenue provision on US-bound shipments due to anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) lawsuits.

The company is closely monitoring the US Department of Commerce’s 19th administrative review (POR19) on AD duties. On June 7, the DOC announced preliminary AD rates under POR19, with mandatory respondent Stapimex facing duties of over 35% - a rate Sao Ta must also apply.

To stabilize operations, Sao Ta is expanding into high-potential markets like Canada, Australia, and South Korea. It is also testing the waters in China and has already signed initial contracts with Japanese restaurant chains there.

Experts recommend that to offset declining US sales, Vietnamese firms should diversify exports to markets such as China, Japan, South Korea, ASEAN, and CPTPP members - regions with strong demand and fewer tariff barriers.

In parallel, businesses must focus on enhancing product value and quality, meeting international standards, and leveraging Vietnam’s free trade agreements to maximize tariff incentives.

Tam An